The rise of a new regime in Syria, emerging from the ruins of Assad’s regime, is being met with a rather cool reception in Egypt. As of this writing, no official Egyptian delegation has arrived in Damascus to engage with representatives of the new Syrian government. Although the Egyptian regime employs diplomatic language  expressing a desire to ensure Syria’s stability and support its unity, it simultaneously harbors fundamental concerns about the emergence of a pro-Turkish Islamist entity on Syrian soil. Such an entity could undermine the Egyptian regime and potentially incite armed rebellion against it in the future, particularly with the integration of activists from the Muslim Brotherhood into the new Syrian administration. This concern is exacerbated by the Muslim Brotherhood’s efforts to create a domino effect that would incite the Egyptian populace against the government. Consequently, this perceived threat has led to widespread mobilization among Egyptian politicians, media figures, and religious authorities, who align with the regime to counteract this subversion.

With the overthrow of the Assad regime, the Egyptian government has refrained from taking a definitive position on the new Syrian regime, instead expressing concern for the Syrian people. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and other senior officials have voiced support for preserving Syria’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. They have called for the political representation of all segments of society in the new Syrian government to facilitate national reconciliation and ensure the country’s stability.[1] The speaker of the Egyptian House of Representatives, Dr. Hanafi Jabali, emphasized the historical connection between Egypt and Syria, clarifying that ensuring Syria’s stability is both an Egyptian and Arab interest.[2] There have also beem calls for assistance in the reconstruction of Syria. Muhammad Abdel Salam, a columnist for the Al-Ahram daily, emphasized that Arab countries, led by Egypt and Jordan, should take responsibility for assisting in Syria’s reconstruction, either directly or through the Arab League, to reintegrate Syria into the Arab world after decades of its dependence on Iran. He claimed that Egypt serves as the best legal model for the new regime in Syria, given the extensive experience it has accumulated in building government institutions.[3]

Despite these statements, the Egyptian government still harbors negative memories of Muhammad al-Julani’s calls for the Muslim Brotherhood to initiate an armed rebellion against the Egyptian regime in 2013, during his tenure as the leader of the al-Nusra Front (al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate). The publication of his photograph (see figure 1), alongside Muhammad Fathi, a prominent Muslim Brotherhood figure, and Yassin Aktay, an advisor to the Turkish president, has further fueled Egyptian suspicions about the emerging regime in Syria. Fathi, an Egyptian citizen and member of the Muslim Brotherhood, has been wanted by Egyptian authorities since 2013 for his involvement in the murder of Attorney General Hisham Barakat, who oversaw the prosecution against the Muslim Brotherhood. Following the murder, Fathi fled to Turkey, where he engaged in propaganda against the Egyptian government and worked to establish terrorist cells on Egyptian soil. Mahmoud Badr, an Egyptian member of parliament and former founder of the Al-Tamarud youth movement, noted that this image serves as evidence of a singular network associated with the Muslim Brotherhood.[4]

Figure 1. Al-Julani with Muhammad Fathi of the Muslim Brotherhood and Yassin Aktay, an advisor to the Turkish president

In addition, it appears that the Egyptian government is attempting to differentiate itself from the Syrian regime through apologetic discourse and by strengthening its image as a regime that benefits its citizens. During a press conference held by President al-Sisi on December 15, where he discussed regional geopolitical developments and the challenges facing Egypt—primarily immigration and the presence of terrorist cells—he emphasized that his hands were not stained with anyone’s blood and that he had never stolen anyone’s property. According to al-Sisi, as long as the Egyptian people remain united around the Egyptian army and police, Egypt will be immune from harm.[5] Islamist critics opposed to the government claimed that this statement was false and accused the Egyptian regime of corruption, nepotism, and shedding the blood of Egyptian citizens during al-Sisi’s military coup in 2013.[6]

Among the supporters of the Egyptian regime, some criticize the American administration for its willingness to normalize relations with the new regime in Syria. For example, an Egyptian publicist emphasized that the US administration has hastened its efforts without thoroughly examining the true intentions of the new Syrian regime.[7] Another Egyptian publicist asserted that the American decision reflects a double standard, as it serves only the interests of the United States. He claimed that this decision constitutes a violation of the international community’s efforts to combat terrorism and sends a signal to other terrorist organizations to adopt a friendly facade to evade global actions against them and strengthen their positions.[8]

Journalists associated with the Egyptian government have warned that the new Syrian regime harbors a hidden agenda aimed at undermining Egypt’s stability. Publicist Khaled Ahmed emphasized that Egypt will never consent to the establishment of dissident elements in Syria, as they pose a threat to its security and may perpetrate terrorist acts against it. He claimed that al-Julani’s intention to grant Syrian citizenship to foreign fighters on Syrian soil raises concerns that these individuals could be used to destabilize regional security and stability.[9] Journalist Ahmed Moussa cautioned against the possibility of Syria evolving into an Islamic emirate akin to the Taliban, as well as a conspiracy by extremist Islamist factions in Syria to overthrow the Egyptian regime.[10] Additionally, journalist Ibrahim Issa and others have expressed concerns regarding the potential infiltration of Syrian refugees by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.[11]

It is noteworthy that the Al-Azhar institution in Egypt has refrained from criticizing the new Syrian regime. Instead, it has cautioned the Syrian people to be wary of the various forces that seek to plunge Syria into civil war and hinder its prosperity.[12] Al-Azhar’s reluctance to support the Egyptian regime may suggest a desire for its policy to remain independent and not subordinated to governmental authority. Furthermore, this stance could indicate a degree of tension between the two entities.

In addition to expressing distrust toward the emerging regime in Syria, the Egyptian government has also articulated concern regarding the Muslim Brotherhood’s efforts to incite unrest in Egypt and mobilize the masses against the regime. For instance, Muhammad Nasser, a media figure associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, drew a comparison between al-Sisi and Bashar al-Assad, asserting that both are dictators who oppress their citizens and are responsible for their economic hardships.[13]

In response, al-Sisi cautioned against subversive elements exploiting social media to disseminate rumors and fake news aimed at destabilizing Egypt.[14] Muhammad Al-Baz, the journalist and chair of the board of directors of the daily Al-Dustur, launched an information campaign on social media titled “Don’t Believe Them,” urging Egyptian citizens to reject the toxic propaganda disseminated by the “Brotherhood committees funded from abroad.” This propaganda employs an old film and misleading narratives to incite public demonstrations against the regime.[15] Sheikh Abu Azzam, head of the Al-Azmiya Sufi Order, also called for vigilance against misinformation on social networks and emphasized the importance of the Egyptian people’s support for the military in confronting the threats posed by the Muslim Brotherhood.[16] Abd al-Munim al-Shahat, a senior figure in the Salafi movement Al-Dawa Al-Salafiya, warned Egyptians against emulating the armed rebellion against Assad’s forces in Syria, asserting that the Egyptian army—regarded as the only Arab military capable of confronting Israel—must be preserved.[17]

Conclusions

Egypt faces a significant dilemma in addressing the new Syrian regime, primarily due to its heightened sensitivity to the presence of Islamists, particularly members of the Muslim Brotherhood, within that regime. By supporting the new government, Egypt fears it may inadvertently bolster the influence of political Islam, embolden dissident forces both domestically and internationally that seek to challenge the Egyptian regime, and facilitate Turkey’s hegemonic ambitions in the region.

Although Turkey and Egypt have been engaged in a reconciliation process since mid-2021, Egyptian suspicions of the Erdogan regime persist. The potential for Turkish influence over the new Syrian regime could reignite tensions between Egypt and Turkey, leading to competition for regional influence, particularly regarding Libya. In light of these factors, it is understandable why the Egyptian regime is investing efforts in strengthening its propaganda front against the emerging threats from Syria and Turkey, and why it is reluctant to “embrace” the new Syrian regime.

Footnotes:

[1] Muhammad al-Jali, “President Sisi and Macron emphasize the importance of preserving Syria’s sovereignty and unity and supporting the Lebanese army” [in Arabic], al-Yawm al-Sab’i, December 28, 2024, https://tinyurl.com/2t4w5vws

[2] ON, “Speech by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dr. Hanafi Jabali, regarding developments in the situation in Syria and Egypt’s position towards the Syrian people,” [in Arabic], YouTube, December 15, 2024, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubI9Rj8equ4

[3] Muhammad Abd al-Salam, “Syria awaits the role of the Arabs,” [in Arabic], al-Ahram, December 15, 2024, https://gate.ahram.org.eg/News/5054015.aspx

[4] Mahmud Badr (@ma7mod_badr), “It’s all one network, and no one should try to convince us otherwise,” [in Arabic] X, December 17, 2024, https://x.com/ma7mod_badr/status/1868779349962330401

[5] Presidency of the Arab Republic of Egypt, “The president is monitoring developments on the regional and international fronts and inspecting the Egyptian Military Academy,” [in Arabic] YouTube, December 15, 2024, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOlORH25KKw

[6] See for example, Tariq al-Halim (@DMTAH), “I have not stained my hands with anyone’s blood, nor have my hands taken anyone’s money. The people of Egypt are aware, understanding, believing, and enduring for the sake of their country,” [in Arabic] X, December 12, 2024, https://x.com/DMTAH/status/1868416947383345630

[7] Abdullah al-Sinawi, “Damascus and beyond.. Sykes – the new Biko?” [in Arabic], al-Shuruq, December 15, 2024, https://www.shorouknews.com/columns/view.aspx?cdate=15122024&id=6575e276-bbee-460b-8ad6-08bf39df4b3b

[8] Hussam Hadid, “Terror and the legalization of terrorism… Will Tahrir al-Sham be removed from the terror lists?” [in Arabic], Al-Bawaba, December 9, 2024, https://www.albawabhnews.com/5118435

[9] Khaled Sayed Ahmed, “Al-Julani’s misguided messages” [in Arabic], al-Shuruq, December 15, 2024, https://www.shorouknews.com/columns/view.aspx?cdate=20122024&id=607004e4-61b6-423f-8400-8b96a0171237

[10] Ahmed Moussa (@ahmeda_mousa), “The Islamic emirate of Syria…” X,  December 8, 2024, https://x.com/ahmeda_mousa/status/1865718850592854278; Sada Elbalad, “ ‘On My Responsibility’ with the journalist Ahmed Moussa,” YouTube, December 21, 2024, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxRNMO4P2rI

[11] Al-Qahira wal-Nas, “Ibrahim Issa: The Syrian residing in Egypt illegally and we don’t know what he is doing is an Egyptian affair, not a Syrian one,” [in Arabic] YouTube, December 23, 2024, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRU1k2gvH5k; “Do the developments in Syria affect Egypt?,” [in Arabic] Masrawi, December 24, 2024, https://tinyurl.com/2phk6n54

[12] Al-Azhar (@AlAzhar), “Al-Azhar warns the Syrian people of highly deceptive schemes aimed at dividing their country,” [in Arabic] X, December 10, 2024. https://x.com/AlAzhar/status/1866596654133977276

[13] Muhammad Nasir, “Amr Adib warns al-Sisi about the anger of the Egyptian people,” [in Arabic] YouTube, December 17, 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kVJCg2wNoM

[14] DMC, “President al-Sisi: Social media is being used to spread a large amount of rumors and lies,” [in Arabic], YouTube, December 22, 2024, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGexqPeUtXI

[15] “Mohammed Al-Baz launches ‘Don’t Believe Them’ campaign to expose Brotherhood lies,” [in Arabic] al-Dustor, December 24, 2024, https://www.dostor.org/4903095

[16] “World Sufi leader praises ‘Don’t Believe Them’ campaign: It exposes the Brotherhood’s lies,” [in Arabic] al-Dustor, December 24, 2024, https://www.dostor.org/4903395

[17]Abd al-Munim al-Shahat, “Syria caught between the joy of Bashar’s fall,” I am a Salafi – Salafi Call Facebook page, December 12, 2024, https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1130048648721666&id=100051496235478&set=a.719979923061876