This article examines the potential impact of the recent Gaza conflict on the political allegiances of Muslim-American voters in the context of the 2024 United States presidential election. Historically aligned with the Democratic Party due to shared values on civil rights and social justice, Muslim-American voters are expressing growing dissatisfaction with the party’s foreign policy decisions, particularly concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This shift is exemplified by the emergence of the “Abandon Harris” campaign and increased support for third-party candidates such as Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. The analysis focuses on the factors contributing to this change, the possible implications for the upcoming election, and includes recent survey data from September 2024.

The Democratic Party’s “Big Tent” approach, initiated during Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency, sought to unite a broad coalition of minority groups, labor unions, and various social classes under common socio-economic goals (Barda, 2020). Muslim-Americans have been a significant part of this coalition, aligning with the party’s emphasis on civil liberties and anti-discrimination policies. However, recent developments have prompted a reevaluation of this alignment.

The Gaza conflict in 2024 has been a critical factor influencing Muslim-American voters’ sentiments. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) faced criticism for not adequately addressing calls from within the party to recognize Palestinian rights and to consider an arms embargo on Israel during its national convention. This perceived inaction led to the formation of the “Abandon Harris” campaign by the grassroots pro-Palestinian movement “Uncommitted.” The campaign urges Muslim voters to withdraw support from Vice President Kamala Harris due to her stance on the Gaza conflict and to consider alternative candidates who more closely represent their views.

Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party has emerged as a notable alternative. Known for her positions on social justice and human rights, including advocacy for Palestinian rights (Stein, 2016), Stein has gained support among Muslim voters dissatisfied with the Democratic Party’s policies. Her candidacy represents a potential shift in voter allegiance that could influence the dynamics of the 2024 election.

A recent survey conducted in September 2024 provides empirical support for these observations. The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) carried out a nationwide poll focusing on Muslim-American voters’ preferences in the upcoming election (CAIR, 2024). The survey included 1,500 registered Muslim voters and revealed that:

• 28.7% intend to vote for Vice President Harris.
• 30.2% plan to support Dr. Jill Stein.
• 12.5% are considering other third-party candidates.
• 15.8% remain undecided.

In key swing states, the shift is more pronounced. For instance, in Michigan:

• 42% of Muslim voters surveyed expressed support for Stein.
• 27% favored Harris.

In Wisconsin:

• 45% indicated support for Stein.
• 25% supported Harris.

These figures are significant given the narrow margins by which elections are decided in swing states. In the 2020 presidential election, President Joe Biden won Michigan by approximately 154,000 votes and Wisconsin by around 20,000 votes (Federal Election Commission, 2020). A substantial shift in Muslim voter support could potentially affect the outcomes in these states, emphasizing the importance of this demographic in the electoral process.

Media reports further document the dissatisfaction among Muslim voters. Articles in The New York Times highlight concerns within the Muslim community regarding the Biden-Harris administration’s policies on the Middle East. Eligon (2024) reports on growing discontent with Vice President Harris’s stance on Gaza, noting that some Muslim and Arab-American voters feel their perspectives are not adequately represented. Similarly, Abdulrahim (2024) discusses challenges faced by President Biden in maintaining support among Muslim voters in Michigan, a key battleground state.

The “Abandon Harris” campaign, previously known as “Abandon Biden,” reflects broader trends of political realignment, particularly with Vice President Harris’s stance on foreign policy, such as the Gaza conflict. According to Laguerre and Rahman (2024), the campaign is active in swing states like Michigan, promoting third-party candidates and expressing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party’s current policies. This movement underscores the increasing importance of foreign policy and human rights in shaping voter preferences in the 2024 election.

Comparative analysis with the United Kingdom reveals parallel developments, where segments of the Muslim community have shifted their support from mainstream parties to smaller or independent candidates who better align with their views on international issues like the Gaza conflict. Recent elections have seen growing disillusionment with Labour, especially after its stance on the Gaza war, prompting many Muslim voters to back independent candidates or smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats and Greens. For example, in areas like Ilford North, Muslim voters played a pivotal role, as dissatisfaction with Labour’s position on Gaza led to the rise of candidates like Leanne Mohamad, who championed Palestine-related issues. This shift mirrors the “Abandon Harris” campaign in the U.S., where voters are prioritizing foreign policy concerns over traditional party loyalty​.

The potential implications of these shifts are multifaceted. For the Democratic Party, addressing the concerns of Muslim voters may be crucial in maintaining electoral competitiveness in key states. Strategies could include engaging with community leaders, reassessing foreign policy positions, and ensuring that party platforms reflect a diversity of perspectives. Failure to address these issues may result in decreased voter turnout or support for third-party candidates, which could impact election outcomes.

From a broader perspective, these developments illustrate the dynamic nature of political alliances and the factors that influence voter behavior. The alignment of voters based on specific policy issues rather than traditional party loyalty suggests a more issue-oriented electorate. This shift may lead to increased political pluralism and the emergence of new coalitions.

The projected growth of the Muslim population in the United States further emphasizes the importance of understanding and addressing this demographic’s concerns. The Pew Research Center estimates that the Muslim population in the U.S. will reach 8 million by 2050, becoming the second-largest religious group in the country (Pew Research Center, 2018). As this population grows, its potential influence on electoral outcomes will likely increase.

In conclusion, the recent Gaza conflict has prompted a political reassessment among Muslim-American voters. The rise of movements such as “Abandon Harris” and the increasing support for third-party candidates like Dr. Jill Stein reflect evolving voter preferences that could influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. These developments point to a broader shift in political alignments and the factors that shape electoral behavior.

References

Abdulrahim, R. (2024, July 12). Biden’s Challenge with Muslim Voters in Michigan. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/12/opinion/biden-michigan-voters-election.html

Barda, K. (2020). Historical Perspectives on Political Coalitions and Minority Status. Forum Prava. Retrieved from http://forumprava.pp.ua/files/006-016-2020-5-FP-Barda_3.pdf

Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR). (2024). Muslim-American Voter Preferences in the 2024 Presidential Election. Retrieved from https://www.cair.com/reports/muslim-voters-2024-election 

Eligon, J. (2024, August 3). Harris Faces Growing Muslim Discontent Over Gaza Stance. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/03/us/politics/harris-israel-arab-american-voters.html

Federal Election Commission. (2020). Official 2020 Presidential General Election Results. Retrieved from https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2020presgeresults.pdf 

Laguerre, Hernz, and Rahman, Nargis. “Abandon Biden Campaign Relaunches as ‘Abandon Harris’.” WDET, 13 Sept. 2024, https://wdet.org/2024/09/13/abandon-biden-campaign-relaunches-as-abandon-harris/.

Middle East Eye. “Why British Muslim Voters Can No Longer Be Ignored.” Middle East Eye, 13 Sept. 2024, https://www.middleeasteye.net.

Pew Research Center. (2018, January 3). New Estimates Show U.S. Muslim Population Continues to Grow. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/03/new-estimates-show-u-s-muslim-population-continues-to-grow/